Global challenges to sustainable development are vast and include the need to balance human development, climate change, and geopolitics. The shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), quantified scenarios defining development trajectories and used in climate research, address challenges related to adaptation and mitigation. While SSP narratives include international cooperation as a driver of climate mitigation, little research has focused on the implications of alternative socioeconomic development on the future distribution of national power and international relations. Using the International Futures model, I operationalize quantified SSP elements to assess the future distribution of relative material capabilities across countries and military spending. Findings show that a sustainable development pathway could induce geopolitical destabilization by causing numerous transitions in regional and global power. This paper emphasizes the necessity of further integrating international relations drivers into the SSPs and underscores the need for policymakers to navigate urgent needs in promoting sustainable development while also considering implications for geopolitical development.
